Lots of things flooding my head over the past couple of weeks. Some good but mostly self-reflective.
During a recent trip with a couple of high school mates to Sydney for a very short stint, it still amazes me that though most of us went on our own separate way, we still act as though we are still in high school. I don't think that many would still be in contact with their own high school mates a decade down the road especially with a whole class. I think it is because we came in at the right time where the internet kicked off with a blast and various social media and messaging tools were available at our disposal. This is on top of the fact that most of us were in the same class for at 4 years in high school, which means we were pretty much are our own little village.
I can't help but wonder when I go back at the end of the year, will I still be accepted back into the group? For too many years have I missed out on the lives of these wonderful bunch of people in pursuit of my own agenda. Yet there is folly in my pursuits and all the things I have set out to achieve since I've left high school has failed to bear fruit. And many people thought that I have the necessary skills and the willpower to achieve something that most people wouldn't dare dream of. But it's those very things that will prove to be my undoing.
I'm sure all of these things will not matter in the grand scheme of things, perhaps I will be accepted in the end. That as time goes by, I may once again get to know the friends that I once knew.
Perhaps what's left of this year and the next is the season for rediscovering friendships and relationships.
--------------------------------------------------------------
On another recent trip to Rye, I am once again in good company. But it also was a time of great reflection not only as an individual but as a whole group. It was brought up that our group is very quiet, which I would beg to differ considering some of the previous groups that I have been in. But when a friend stated that we still lack the sense of ownership to the group, it suddenly made sense. In fact it was kind of a piercing statement when I heard it. Many times that I was physically present but not there and sometimes I can see others do that as well. And because of this lack of ownership with the group that a number of issues came up that has been going on that I was not aware of ever since I've been in the group.
Perhaps I didn't understand what community meant. I've always thought that at least we should be doing stuff together, which I do, but it's not sufficient. Community implies relationship and not simply a gotong-royong (working bee). Pro-activeness has never really been a strong attribute of mine but based on the discussion that we've had at Rye, it's about time I do something about it.
Perhaps what's left of this year and the next is the season to be pro-active.
---------------------------------------------------------------
I sense another tectonic scale movement in the lives of others. Which means I'm going to set a timer before I channel my energy elsewhere. Nothing personal, just that priorities have been shifted and it's most likely not mine.
Perhaps what's left of this year and the next is the season for packing up and move elsewhere.
New Era
Saturday, November 17, 2012
at
8:30 PM
It's been awhile now, partly because I moved again and have been internet-less for weeks. Not to mention that I have a long list of to-do things from work. But more importantly, I have to catch up with all the cat videos ever since I got back my intertubez.
I don't normally follow any elections which is a behaviour I'm trying to change but the recent US presidential elections kinda caught my attention a bit. But it wasn't the politics that I was interested in but the predictions made by one Nate Silver. He is a statistician who used to work out the career trajectories of baseball players based on a whole heap of data. Only recently he turned his attention to politics, employing the same techniques he used in his previous work. He predicted in 2008 that Obama would win the elections and the correctly called who would win in 49 out of 50 states. Now in the 2012 elections, he also called that Obama would win and not only that he was given a ridiculous 90% chance of winning over Romney. Again he has already correctly called 49 states with Florida still hanging (though he is most likely going to be right).
You can imagine what happens in the Romney camp when they heard that he called Obama to win the elections. They all say he does not know anything. Ironically, Nate Silver correctly predicted wins for the Republicans in other state elections and has praised him for that. I'll comment on this a little later on. Back to the story, virtually most pundits call this election to be a 50-50 race so for them to hear that Obama has a 90% chance of winning the election, most people dismissed him. Of course that doesn't matter now considering that Obama has won. Post election and pretty much all the pundits who slammed him for "bad" predictions sheepishly said that he was right.
On a slightly related note, when the technician came over to our place when we needed that telephone cable to be connected, I was talking to him. You know, about how long he has been in the business etc etc. One of the things he mentioned that the way things work around there has changed quite a lot. It doesn't matter how many jobs you do but as long as you press the right buttons and that's how you get paid, he said. He further commented that it's a stats driven world now.
The point from both these scenarios is that of the technician that came in to install our phone cable, it IS a stats driven world. People still have this idea that statistical predictions are pretty much synonymous with voodoo especially when they correctly predict something seemingly complex with a very small error to boot. Take for example Hurricane Sandy that hit most of the East Coast of the US. Statistical data combined with sophisticated weather models helped predict the trajectory of the hurricane down to within 50 miles. The only thing that they didn't quite get it right was the intensity of the hurricane. The gap between what scientists can do (with statistics included) and what the general public knows about them has gotten larger. And as what I can gather from these two scenarios, even if the public generally accepts that it is a stats driven world, it is viewed as a negative thing. They have resigned to the fact that "voodoo" now powers the world instead of what they would view as objective, measurable and somewhat naive data.
You don't have to go far to see that stats do indeed power the world. Apart from the elections and Hurricane Sandy, things like SEO, data mining for more effective targeted advertising, supermarket aisle rearrangements, behavioural economics and more. All of this is to tap into the subconscious behaviour of a collective and leverage on that. And it only can be done via a powerful grasp of statistics.
I once had a lecturer that said, we are now moving from the continuous age to the discrete age and it is only with a strong grasp of statistics that we can start to understand the strange phenomena around us. Mathematics that started in the 1700s all the way to about the early 1900s all had the idea that things in nature can be described as a continuum, everything is smooth, predictable and contains only one answer*. From the 1900s, we get things like quantum mechanics , statistics, probability, data communications and modern economics where there they don't work with exact answers^ but trends. And even then, it's trends given the right data and assumptions. It will take a long time before we get our head around the fact that statistics is a powerful tool to use and more importantly how to use it properly.
I did say I was going to comment from an earlier paragraph. Despite all of this, we as humans still practice the method that we accept what we want to hear. It is usually from the lack of understanding about the underlying process or just plain ignorant about the data. After many thousands of years, we humans still have the same problem, pride. Even as we advanced as the most technologically advanced species on the planet, our moral compass is still ultimately flawed.
*this is not technically correct but it is the general view
^again this is not technically correct but you get the idea already
I don't normally follow any elections which is a behaviour I'm trying to change but the recent US presidential elections kinda caught my attention a bit. But it wasn't the politics that I was interested in but the predictions made by one Nate Silver. He is a statistician who used to work out the career trajectories of baseball players based on a whole heap of data. Only recently he turned his attention to politics, employing the same techniques he used in his previous work. He predicted in 2008 that Obama would win the elections and the correctly called who would win in 49 out of 50 states. Now in the 2012 elections, he also called that Obama would win and not only that he was given a ridiculous 90% chance of winning over Romney. Again he has already correctly called 49 states with Florida still hanging (though he is most likely going to be right).
You can imagine what happens in the Romney camp when they heard that he called Obama to win the elections. They all say he does not know anything. Ironically, Nate Silver correctly predicted wins for the Republicans in other state elections and has praised him for that. I'll comment on this a little later on. Back to the story, virtually most pundits call this election to be a 50-50 race so for them to hear that Obama has a 90% chance of winning the election, most people dismissed him. Of course that doesn't matter now considering that Obama has won. Post election and pretty much all the pundits who slammed him for "bad" predictions sheepishly said that he was right.
On a slightly related note, when the technician came over to our place when we needed that telephone cable to be connected, I was talking to him. You know, about how long he has been in the business etc etc. One of the things he mentioned that the way things work around there has changed quite a lot. It doesn't matter how many jobs you do but as long as you press the right buttons and that's how you get paid, he said. He further commented that it's a stats driven world now.
The point from both these scenarios is that of the technician that came in to install our phone cable, it IS a stats driven world. People still have this idea that statistical predictions are pretty much synonymous with voodoo especially when they correctly predict something seemingly complex with a very small error to boot. Take for example Hurricane Sandy that hit most of the East Coast of the US. Statistical data combined with sophisticated weather models helped predict the trajectory of the hurricane down to within 50 miles. The only thing that they didn't quite get it right was the intensity of the hurricane. The gap between what scientists can do (with statistics included) and what the general public knows about them has gotten larger. And as what I can gather from these two scenarios, even if the public generally accepts that it is a stats driven world, it is viewed as a negative thing. They have resigned to the fact that "voodoo" now powers the world instead of what they would view as objective, measurable and somewhat naive data.
You don't have to go far to see that stats do indeed power the world. Apart from the elections and Hurricane Sandy, things like SEO, data mining for more effective targeted advertising, supermarket aisle rearrangements, behavioural economics and more. All of this is to tap into the subconscious behaviour of a collective and leverage on that. And it only can be done via a powerful grasp of statistics.
I once had a lecturer that said, we are now moving from the continuous age to the discrete age and it is only with a strong grasp of statistics that we can start to understand the strange phenomena around us. Mathematics that started in the 1700s all the way to about the early 1900s all had the idea that things in nature can be described as a continuum, everything is smooth, predictable and contains only one answer*. From the 1900s, we get things like quantum mechanics , statistics, probability, data communications and modern economics where there they don't work with exact answers^ but trends. And even then, it's trends given the right data and assumptions. It will take a long time before we get our head around the fact that statistics is a powerful tool to use and more importantly how to use it properly.
I did say I was going to comment from an earlier paragraph. Despite all of this, we as humans still practice the method that we accept what we want to hear. It is usually from the lack of understanding about the underlying process or just plain ignorant about the data. After many thousands of years, we humans still have the same problem, pride. Even as we advanced as the most technologically advanced species on the planet, our moral compass is still ultimately flawed.
*this is not technically correct but it is the general view
^again this is not technically correct but you get the idea already
|
0
comments
|
Micro-Macro
Thursday, October 11, 2012
at
2:30 AM
It seems that most of my content these days are almost solely generated by conversations with friends. More interestingly it's from friends who I've hardly talked to or have distanced myself due to whatever personal reason I had in recent times. This is probably a good thing and at the same time perhaps stoking the fire a little bit.
After a long conversation on a crummy weekend, busy trying to explain the economics of my actions and feelings, uncovering old wounds and unveiling plans of a seemingly uncertain future, I really am more complicated than I portray myself to be. I am also more brutal than I think I am when it comes down to cost-benefit game. Too many variables, probabilities and weightages to consider. Trying to make the most rational decision based on current trends is my goal because that is how you play the cost-benefit game. What I have seem to gather from a long string of conversations is that often times it's the one irrational decision that actually give rise to the benefit. I cannot and still cannot stomach this because that is not how it works, or so I thought. How can doing something irrational bring the desired benefit instead of the rational? Ironically I have been reading books from a behavioural economist who sees some inherent good in being irrational while nodding my head in agreement.
Also from my conversations, it made me recall all the people that I have talked to, who at one stage or another, said that they could see themselves live the life I live now. With the exception of people with a degree of separation greater than 2, I remember I've never believed they could. I was right, not a single one of them did. For a kind of sanity check, I look to the few people who have never said anything and living the life, though I admit their reasons are quite different to mine. Although it is not really the case, but they give me some glimmer of hope that though I may not get everything I want (last time I checked, not even one) but I trust that something good will come out of it still. This includes not owning a hedgehog. This. Is. A. Big. Deal.
In short, I am safe and afraid with a dash of pathetic. In the words of the Lethal Weapon series, "I'm getting too old for this shit".
------------------------------------------------
I'm still not used to like hearing the phrase "It's good to see people doing well and moving on". It implies certain things.
------------------------------------------------
4 more DVDs to finishing 28 films in 28 days. And it is only fitting to end it with, you guessed it, 28 Days Later.
Though a lot of friends don't like it but I think Julie & Julia is a rare kind of film. I would even go as far as advocating engaged couples to watch this during marriage preparation. The reason should be pretty obvious. Plus French cooking.
I really should start cataloguing my watched films.
After a long conversation on a crummy weekend, busy trying to explain the economics of my actions and feelings, uncovering old wounds and unveiling plans of a seemingly uncertain future, I really am more complicated than I portray myself to be. I am also more brutal than I think I am when it comes down to cost-benefit game. Too many variables, probabilities and weightages to consider. Trying to make the most rational decision based on current trends is my goal because that is how you play the cost-benefit game. What I have seem to gather from a long string of conversations is that often times it's the one irrational decision that actually give rise to the benefit. I cannot and still cannot stomach this because that is not how it works, or so I thought. How can doing something irrational bring the desired benefit instead of the rational? Ironically I have been reading books from a behavioural economist who sees some inherent good in being irrational while nodding my head in agreement.
Also from my conversations, it made me recall all the people that I have talked to, who at one stage or another, said that they could see themselves live the life I live now. With the exception of people with a degree of separation greater than 2, I remember I've never believed they could. I was right, not a single one of them did. For a kind of sanity check, I look to the few people who have never said anything and living the life, though I admit their reasons are quite different to mine. Although it is not really the case, but they give me some glimmer of hope that though I may not get everything I want (last time I checked, not even one) but I trust that something good will come out of it still. This includes not owning a hedgehog. This. Is. A. Big. Deal.
In short, I am safe and afraid with a dash of pathetic. In the words of the Lethal Weapon series, "I'm getting too old for this shit".
------------------------------------------------
I'm still not used to like hearing the phrase "It's good to see people doing well and moving on". It implies certain things.
------------------------------------------------
4 more DVDs to finishing 28 films in 28 days. And it is only fitting to end it with, you guessed it, 28 Days Later.
Though a lot of friends don't like it but I think Julie & Julia is a rare kind of film. I would even go as far as advocating engaged couples to watch this during marriage preparation. The reason should be pretty obvious. Plus French cooking.
I really should start cataloguing my watched films.
|
0
comments
|
Bleh?
Monday, October 1, 2012
at
2:30 AM
Kinda excited for the next couple of months. We're looking into moving office again after an explosive year, I'm moving again after slightly under a year of hermitting, first iPad dev project and lots of other things. Funny how lots of areas in my life is moving on but the few that I really want to move does not.
-------------------------------------------
I am super late to come to this realisation but Tina Fey is now my current person to ogle at. After reading this article and watching Date Night and Baby Mama recently, if such a person were to appear in front of me and said "Hi." I will stammer like a broken record and make a complete fool of myself though I have always done so and still do. She is super funny, wonderful person and like the article says have a low view about her appearance but is absolutely gorgeous on all accounts. I'd like that.
Another one to chalk up on the list of weak-knees-us (see what I did there? Weaknesses? Anyone? No?)
-------------------------------------------
Today is an example on how a two-man band with proper layering is better than a 5-man band with no layering.
-------------------------------------------
Someday I will run out of excuses to make. When that comes round, I'll take a bow and just disappear. It's better that way. But I hope that day never comes.
-------------------------------------------
Correction: people are having really good things going on for them. There's probably no such thing as asking for more contentment (you either are or aren't) but I can try.
-------------------------------------------
I am super late to come to this realisation but Tina Fey is now my current person to ogle at. After reading this article and watching Date Night and Baby Mama recently, if such a person were to appear in front of me and said "Hi." I will stammer like a broken record and make a complete fool of myself though I have always done so and still do. She is super funny, wonderful person and like the article says have a low view about her appearance but is absolutely gorgeous on all accounts. I'd like that.
Another one to chalk up on the list of weak-knees-us (see what I did there? Weaknesses? Anyone? No?)
-------------------------------------------
Today is an example on how a two-man band with proper layering is better than a 5-man band with no layering.
-------------------------------------------
Someday I will run out of excuses to make. When that comes round, I'll take a bow and just disappear. It's better that way. But I hope that day never comes.
-------------------------------------------
Correction: people are having really good things going on for them. There's probably no such thing as asking for more contentment (you either are or aren't) but I can try.
|
0
comments
|
A in Q & A
Monday, September 24, 2012
at
2:00 AM
For many moons I have long contemplated about what is the point of going through so much strife during my PhD years. What good can come out of it? And every time I had to explain to people why my PhD failed, I revisit this question at the end of the day after the said conversation is long over. And though I have made my peace long ago, it still sometimes hurt to hear myself talk again about it. Bonus hurt points if one person mentions the line "So, in the effort of saving one, you ended up losing both". I've asked God many times then and occasionally now, Why?
God has instead shown me this path I'm on which is great but my questions were still left unanswered. I've accumulated many theoretical answers about the question of Why but none has really shown itself to me. You've always known that God is sovereign and every thing will work out in the end but you just don't see it. And it is very tempting to say that all this talk is just rubbish, that every thing will not work out in the end and perhaps the worse thing, is that God is not sovereign. We even sing songs about God's timing and sometimes I can't help but feel it deep down that I'm not sure of all of this.
Recently I had a talk with a friend who I have not seen for quite some time and the topic of my PhD years was asked of me. I gladly stated the whole story also knowing that I am going to revisit this question some time later as usual. But this one was different. It soon became immediately clear that whatever I faced during my PhD years this friend of mine was facing or will face, though this person is in a PhD program yet. Slowly the emotional weight of what this person was carrying was made known and the resemblance was so similiar to mine that it actually felt like it was mine. So I gave my advice and you know, it may not be much but it certainly comforted my friend a lot. We prayed before we left knowing very well my friend had a lot to think about but certainly felt a lot better leaving than coming in.
Call it coincidence, serendipity, fate and what not but that encounter to me was proof enough that this was the reason I went through so much strife in my PhD years. For the first time I get to see what does it actually mean for God to be sovereign. Another bonus is that it is also helping me with my other struggles as well. I am very thankful for that.
------------------------------------
Other people around me are doing well, have good things going for them. I would like to have them as well but I pray for contentness.
|
0
comments
|
Made Good, For Better
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
at
12:00 AM
I recently went for a series of talks organised by Ridley College on answering some of our generation's toughest questions and I have to say I was glad that I went for all of them. It was pretty much post-ski trip outings except instead of slaloming down snow capped mountains, it's slaloming through a mine field of tough questions. The one thing that I found to be quite unique with this series of talks is that it's not trying to make Christianity the superior option by beating everything else down. It uses, I think, a more effective way, level the playing field and post the invitation. As I sat through the rest of the talks, all I could think of is this is what the phrase "defending the faith" is really like. This is probably one place where the age-old term "the best defence is a good offence" doesn't quite apply.
Hopefully in the coming days, the recordings of those talks will be up because there are too many things to get a hold on in just about half an hour each session. Not only was it the first real attempt to answering some of my questions satisfactorily but it also answered some of my other questions which I did not expect to be addressed. For some, it helped lighten my burden I've been carrying this year. For most, it was a great refreshment. And what happens after that was good fellowship, something that hardly came by in the past couple of years.
-----------------------------
I came back yesterday to find that my past two posts went up by 50% in readership in one day. On the slowest day of the week. I nearly fell off my chair because of that. Then I realised that my headlines may have something to do with it. Ish.
Hopefully in the coming days, the recordings of those talks will be up because there are too many things to get a hold on in just about half an hour each session. Not only was it the first real attempt to answering some of my questions satisfactorily but it also answered some of my other questions which I did not expect to be addressed. For some, it helped lighten my burden I've been carrying this year. For most, it was a great refreshment. And what happens after that was good fellowship, something that hardly came by in the past couple of years.
-----------------------------
I came back yesterday to find that my past two posts went up by 50% in readership in one day. On the slowest day of the week. I nearly fell off my chair because of that. Then I realised that my headlines may have something to do with it. Ish.
|
0
comments
|
Please Ignore This
Monday, September 3, 2012
at
12:00 AM
This week was probably one of the hardest weeks for me emotionally in recent times. Just when I thought getting out of the massive project last week was going to give me rest.
-
I count myself as extremely fortunate to have met people who I would classify as seriously awesome people and call them as friends. I wonder from time to time what did I do to deserve this of which I can clearly answer with a big fat Nothing. And sometimes that worries me.
-
It seems that no matter where I go and who I am with, there is always something to remind of my struggles. I'm not sure if that is a kind of taunting/accusation where I screwed everything up and this is what I could be having if I didn't or an imperative like that of a far superior boxer knocked you out and asks you to give up and don't come back and you are going to accept it as he walks away in dramatic style. This reminder is a slow and painful one to ride out and usually by the time it actually lingers out, another one comes in. It's enough for me to hit my head on the wall several times a day.
-
Making new friends is a phenomenal task for me to do. Because often I have to break into already established groups and the amount of energy I need to expend is tremendous. Some groups are easier to break in than others of which I can say it has been easier with the current group. But there is another problem that I have to deal with which actually involves everyone and obviously more so for new people, letting them in my space. Because I am always afraid of what they might find. Heck, I don't even let some friends in.
-
You know what is the worst thing about personal change? That by the time you act on the change, it's past the window of opportunity and whatever benefits that comes as a result of the said change becomes futile.
-
Film. I need to watch more films. I also need to watch more films alone.
-
I once mentioned to someone that there is a John Mayer song for every occasion. So far that hasn't been wrong yet. Born and Raised has encompassed even more and has certainly encompassed some of my things recently.
-
I count myself as extremely fortunate to have met people who I would classify as seriously awesome people and call them as friends. I wonder from time to time what did I do to deserve this of which I can clearly answer with a big fat Nothing. And sometimes that worries me.
-
It seems that no matter where I go and who I am with, there is always something to remind of my struggles. I'm not sure if that is a kind of taunting/accusation where I screwed everything up and this is what I could be having if I didn't or an imperative like that of a far superior boxer knocked you out and asks you to give up and don't come back and you are going to accept it as he walks away in dramatic style. This reminder is a slow and painful one to ride out and usually by the time it actually lingers out, another one comes in. It's enough for me to hit my head on the wall several times a day.
-
Making new friends is a phenomenal task for me to do. Because often I have to break into already established groups and the amount of energy I need to expend is tremendous. Some groups are easier to break in than others of which I can say it has been easier with the current group. But there is another problem that I have to deal with which actually involves everyone and obviously more so for new people, letting them in my space. Because I am always afraid of what they might find. Heck, I don't even let some friends in.
-
You know what is the worst thing about personal change? That by the time you act on the change, it's past the window of opportunity and whatever benefits that comes as a result of the said change becomes futile.
-
Film. I need to watch more films. I also need to watch more films alone.
-
I once mentioned to someone that there is a John Mayer song for every occasion. So far that hasn't been wrong yet. Born and Raised has encompassed even more and has certainly encompassed some of my things recently.
|
0
comments
|
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
